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« Self-healing worm on rampage | Main | Personal search: limitations? »

November 22, 2004

Housing boom: officially over?

In a report to be released later this week, even Barclay's has finally declared that the housing market has peaked - and is now going down the other side.

According to the BBC report Barclays warns of house price dip, Barclays announced:

UK house prices are "coming off their peaks" and may fall by 20% in the next three years, Barclays Bank has said.

The UK's fifth biggest lender believes consumer spending will be hit as a result but does not predict a "crash".

However, let's be fair, this sort of statement is in danger of having been wrapped up in Public Relations cotton-wool. Barclays Bank owns the Woolich Building Society and has a vested interest in a bouyed housing market.

A fall of 20% over the next 3 years represents a rather conservative prediction, with housing market more likely to fall over 20% over the next 2 years.

However, there seems to be a very keen attempt be the UK housing industry to play down the general state of the UK housing market, in what can only be seen as an attempt to prevent consumer panic and a complete loss of confidence - all in a industry that non-UK observers, such as the IMF, have declared is almost certainly going to crash.

The questions are simply "how quickly" and "to what degree", but in the meantime the lending agents are putting no a brave face and trying to assure us that changes in market prices will be far more gentle. It's hard not to see this as a self-interested plea, rather than a cold observation of market realities.

Posted by at November 22, 2004 02:57 PM


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