Forrester has begun a damage limitation exercise, to distance itself from media reports about the fall in iTunes sales.
A Forrester Research report on a sample of credit card transactions had stated “that iTunes sales had dropped in the first six months of this year”.
Journalists used the information in concert with Nielsen data to determine a claim of a 65% fall in iTunes sales over the year.
The resulting story then fell into confusion as different analysts stepped in with conflicting reports on the revenue strength of iTunes.
While Forrester were keen to originally report that the study “tarnished” the iTunes story, they are now belittling their study as “a simple little report” and accusing UK media of being unreasonable in covering it.
It’s fair to say that reports on samples need to be statistically relevant, but the Forrester report - which originally intended to slate Apple’s success in it - was always going to be picked up by media somewhere.
Additionally, for a report apparently of little statistical value, it’s interesting that Forrester’s continue to sell the 14 page document for $249.
The bottom line is that Forrester’s have cocked up.
They attempted to diminish Apple’s standing by concluding that 20 iTune sales per iPod was poor performance, but their attempted criticism blew up in their faces.
The resulting fracas wiped over $2 billion from Apple’s share price, and now leaves Forrester’s desperately trying to pin the blame elsewhere.
In the meantime, as some “outfit called the Register” pointed out, Forrester’s just aren’t sure how to spin the story anymore, variously declaring that growth has either slowed or levelled off, in contrast to its own study.
In the meantime, the lesson to be learned is for analysts to be more careful on what they actually report - because media may just quote them on that.